When the bitcoin price was $60,000 everyone was talking about it and many were lining up to buy it. Since bitcoin has been in a bear market, nobody around you is talking about it and a lot less people want to buy it.
by Andrew Howard on 04 Sep 2023
The psychology of investing is truly fascinating. Human beings feel more comfortable doing something when everyone else is too. It may feel comfortable to buy when everybody else is buying, but as Nathan Rothschild is credited for saying:
"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
Is bitcoin a bubble? Is bitcoin just a hyped-up fad that's doomed to fail? For many, it may feel like that after a huge drop in price. But bitcoin has been rapidly rising and falling since its inception.
Take a look at these older headlines claiming that bitcoin would become a thing of the past, and ask yourself: What if you ignored the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and just invested consistently over time?
BITCOIN PRICE: $746
BITCOIN PRICE: $327
BITCOIN PRICE: $797
BITCOIN PRICE: $3,553
BITCOIN PRICE: $13,709
Another great resource is "Bitcoin Obituaries", which is a repository of every single article since bitcoin's inception that claimed bitcoin is either "dead" or "doomed to fail".
Historically speaking, with any new technology there have always been concerns and naysayers. Even with the telephone, the automobile, and the Internet:
Despite the criticisms bitcoin has received in the media, especially in its early days, the claims of it "failing" have so far all turned out to be proven false. That being said, bitcoin can certainly be volatile. It can seem scary to buy and hold something so new, with the price constantly fluctuating and so many concerning headlines published over the years.
If you DO think that bitcoin is going to fail though, then why would the following people own it? What do you know that they don't?
- CEO of Apple
- Co-founder of Apple
- Co-founder of LinkedIn
- Former CEO of Google
- Former President of PayPal
- Co-founder of PayPal
- Former CEO of Morgan Stanely
- Founder of the world's largest hedge fund
(For a list of over 100 notable figures who own bitcoin, such as those mentioned above, check out TheyOwnBitcoin.com)
But, is bitcoin too volatile to be a form of money? Well, here's the reality...
Bitcoin is NOT money...yet. Bitcoin is an EMERGING form of money, born out of the free market. Historically speaking - looking at all other forms of money that have existed in the past - in order for something to be "fully monetized", there must be three key characteristics, each in this order:
1. Store of value: Stating the obvious, in order for something to be money, people must assign value to it.
2. Medium of exchange: Because people assign value to a form of money, they’re willing to exchange it for other goods and services which are valuable to them.
3. Unit of account: Money then serves as a tool to denominate how much value a certain good or service has.
Bitcoin is currently in the process of step #1, becoming a store of value. It would simply be impossible for bitcoin to go from being born in 2008 to becoming world reserve currency without any volatility along the way.
That being said, the word "volatile" often has a negative connotation, but volatility can go both ways - down AND up. Let's take a look at how "volatile" bitcoin has been in the past...
Bitcoin went up to $29, then crashed to $2.60.
Bitcoin went up to $1,180, then crashed down to $200 in 2015.
Bitcoin went up to $19,000, then crashed down to $3,200 in 2018.
Bitcoin went up to $67,500, then crashed down to $15,800 in 2022.
This is why it's historically been the better option to simply buy and hold bitcoin, rather than try to time the market and trade it. Bitcoin can be seen as a long-term savings vehicle and not a short-term gamble in hope of profits.
The graph below sums up how the average person who does NOT understand bitcoin could feel during these fluctuations:
Notice a common trend? Bitcoin's price still inevitably continues to rise despite the fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Yes, bitcoin is indeed "volatile", but again - volatility can go both ways... in this case, the price has historically trended upwards, as more people all over the world continue to allocate capital into it, as well as the newly issued supply of bitcoin being cut in half every four years (known as the "halving"). If you think bitcoin is volatile, then you must really not like fiat currencies! (see Hanke-Krus Hyperinflation Table below)
Yes, bitcoin's short-term price movements can seem alarming to those who haven't taken the time to learn about it enough to have conviction. Those who do, however, realize that bitcoin is a necessary invention which solves a major problem humanity has faced for thousands of years: Bitcoin is the separation of money & state.
Ultimately, the value proposition remains the same, with the price gradually moving up over time as more people all over the world realize why bitcoin is valuable... despite large upswings and pullbacks: